Thousands of Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Hamas’ brutal terrorist attacks in southern Israel but Hamas officials state that this tragedy has not caused this barbaric organisation to regret its actions in which its terrorists killed over 1,200 Israeli civilians including babies, kids, women and the elderly. Hamas leaders say that their goal was to deliberately trigger this kind of response from Israel that would result in many civilian deaths in Gaza and that they are hoping for a bigger war because the Hamas main aim in October was to start a major war. And how successful has it been?

Looking back to the months before the attack, it is possible to detect that Hamas had warned that a conflict could be approaching. In August, one of Hamas’s leaders, Saleh al-Arouri, told a Lebanese news channel that Israel’s policies, particularly its land grabs in the West Bank and its desire to control the al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, are likely to spark a war. “We are preparing for an all out war” he said, “and we are closely discussing the prospects of this war with all relevant parties.”

Other statements have indicated that the October 7 operation was not a singular step but part of Hamas’ strategy aimed at ending Israel’s attempts to bring an end to the Palestinian question and to build local alliances that will lead to the resolution of the conflict.

It is now generally agreed that the prospect of Israel’s normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia persuaded Hamas to launch its attack in October. The group’s leaders believed that their action would halt this diplomatic initiative that would almost certainly permanently undermine the standing of the Palestinian cause among the Arab countries. Furthermore, the Hamas leaders believed that closer relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would enhance the alliance against Iran and its puppet proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. This indicates that Iran, which has for many years funded, trained and supplied arms to Hamas, was supportive of the attack and had strong reasons to derail any such deal.

It must be remembered that Hamas has always been committed to the destruction of Israel and has opposed any kind of peace including the two-state solution. Hamas believes that if Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations, this will be a transformative event and would form a defence alliance against Iran and open the door to Arab peacemaking with Israel.

As things stand today, it is probably too early to detect if Hezbollah or Iran played any real role in the planning or preparations of the attack on 7 October. It is thought that although Hamas carried out the assault on Israeli communities on its own, there are indications that the operation was a known Hezbollah plan which included invading Israeli communities, killing or kidnapping civilians whilst showing videos of fighters in Israeli territory, in an attempt to destroy Israel’s belief in its ability to deter any attacks and secure its population.

A further aim of Hamas was to persuade other Arab countries to join the war and participate in this fight against the Zionists. It had also hoped to persuade Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries to cancel any plans to normalise relations with Israel. The message was that if Israel is incapable of securing itself, it will be unable to assist you with any protection and security.

And so Hamas wanted a war.

Although some Arab countries may seriously consider Hamas’s words, the more likely outcome from this war will hopefully be the opposite. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will hopefully decide that they must unite to oppose the increasing threat from terrorists and militants from Iran and its allies that include not only Hamas and Hezbollah but also the increasingly aggressive Houthis in Yemen. As time goes on, the lessons from this war for the Gulf States will be about the aggressive intentions of Iran and its increasing network of proxies based not only in Gaza but also in Lebanon and Syria.

There is little doubt therefore that Hamas wanted a war. Its leaders knew that Israel would initiate a severe response to the attack, if for no other reason than to rescue the high number of hostages dragged into Gaza. It is also likely that the plan was to force Israel into Gaza where for many years Hamas has built an extensive tunnel network from which its terrorists would inflict heavy losses on the Israeli troops when they follow the hostages into the Strip.

The Hamas plan and subsequent decision to start the war now appears to have been based on several miscalculations. Hamas probably assumed that Iran and its regional proxies would support the military action against Israel and present it with a serious challenge on more than one border. Also, the group hoped that Palestinians in the West Bank and Arab Israelis would rise up to join them, but thankfully this has not happened. Furthermore, Hamas probably did not expect that President Biden would provide such a high degree of support, including the deployment of two carrier groups into the region, but instead would have curtailed Israel’s response.

The murderous and barbaric attack by Hamas on 7 October has forced Israel to declare that Hamas cannot be left as the governing authority in Gaza and its military capability must be destroyed. Israel cannot tolerate the situation where Hamas continues to hold over 100 hostages, including women and children as well as a number of foreigners including Americans and Brits. Israel has therefore taken the fight to Hamas and although the IDF is taking steps to minimise civilian casualties, which has undoubtedly slowed its military advance, there is no getting away from the tragic consequences of war that have inflicted enormous suffering on the people of Gaza.

Even though the world has finally come to realise that Hamas is a terrorist group similar to ISIS and should be treated as such, pressure is building on Israel to stop the war or at least declare another truce. But this will only play into Hamas’s hands by providing this terrorist group time to reorganise, rearm and prepare for the next stage of the war it started.

But Israel continues to focus more on freeing the hostages and defeating Hamas than winning hearts and minds abroad. It must also create the conditions that will enable the evacuated civilians to return to their homes, not only along the Gaza border but also in the north of the country. Tens of thousands of civilians have been evacuated from towns and cities near the borders in order to keep them safe. A real return to their homes can only be achieved by restoring the nation’s sense of security and the unshaken belief that the IDF will keep it safe.

Hamas wanted a war but as a result the major question now is what comes next in Gaza after Hamas is gone. There has to be a clear vision that will hopefully bring peace to the region and security for the Strip and its long suffering population as well as to the people of Israel.